Friday, June 16, 2006

Book Review: Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Blunders

by Matt Sandler

One of the biggest joys of being a baseball fan is griping with our fellow fans about our favorite team. We are so sure that we wouldn’t make the idiotic mistakes that we see the managers and general managers in the majors make. How could Jim Duquette trade Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano? Couldn’t he have gotten the other Zambrano? Why oh why was Willie Randolph so stubborn last year in continuing to bat David Wright seventh in the lineup? Surely if we were in the same positions, we wouldn’t commit these colossal blunders.

The best current baseball writer, Rob Neyer, has written a highly entertaining and informative new book called Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Blunders (Fireside, 2006). What is the difference between an error and a blunder? As Neyer writes, “Bill Buckner did not blunder when he let that ball squirt between his legs; John McNamara did blunder when he let Bill Buckner let that ball squirt between his legs.” There are three requirements for what Neyer considers a blunder, summarized as follows: “Premeditation. Contemporary questionability. Ill effects.” In other words, it has to be something that could be thought about in advance (hence Buckner’s error being excluded), clearly suspicious at the time (not just a second-guess), and negatively impacting a team’s performance (Bob Brenly is off the hook for questionable moves since the D’backs won the 2001 World Series). Therefore, a blunder can typically only be committed by owners, general managers, and managers. In fact, none other than Babe Ruth, who somewhat inexplicably was caught stealing second base to end the 1926 World Series, committed the only in-game player decision that is included in the book.

Many of the blunders were trades or free-agent signings that can be specifically correlated with a team missing out on a postseason berth one or more times. For instance, Neyer estimates that the Cardinals trading Steve Carlton to the Phillies before the 1972 season cost the Cardinals three division titles, and backs up this analysis with cold, hard facts. Of course, these analyses can suffer from the fallacy of preordained conclusions, that if the event in question hadn’t happened, everything else that followed would have remained the same. We know from the “butterfly flaps its wings” theory that this is not the case. But Neyer has earned enough trust through his superb column on espn.com, and the book uses accounts of Win Shares post-trades, that we do feel that we are seeing the best guesses as to the real impact of these GM decisions.

Neyer also does not shy away from more of the business and legal aspects of the sport, and shows himself to be as adept with this angle as he is with statistics. Some of the blunders committed by owners include hiring military man Spike Eckert, who compared baseball franchises to Air Force bases, as commissioner. They also didn’t realize the genius of fellow owner Charlie Finley’s idea of making every player a free agent every year. Coming from Finley (he of the orange baseball concept), this idea was mocked, but it was union head Marvin Miller’s private nightmare, as it would drive salaries down. But owners instead accepted the compromise that we have today, where players are locked up for six years before becoming free agents. Thus, every year, one or two stars at each position becomes a free agent, and there are many teams that need a player at that position, creating bidding wars. Finally, the owners participated in three off-seasons of collusion in the late 1980s, resulting in a huge settlement years later, and perhaps a permanent distrust of ownership by the players union.

The most entertaining chapters in the book (but let it be said that there is not one uninteresting chapter in the book) are reserved for in-game managerial decisions, which can be pinpointed as costing teams important regular season or playoff games. All the recent favorites are here. McNamara leaving Buckner in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. Buck Showalter leaving David Cone in to throw 147 pitches in Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS against the Mariners. Grady Little not taking Pedro Martinez out of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. Joe Torre refusing to bring in Mariano Rivera in Game 4 of the World Series against the Marlins because he was waiting for a save situation on the road. But the funniest chapters are reserved for the Cubs’ hiring of Dusty Baker (who said that “a player doesn’t reach his peak until he’s somewhere between thirty-two or thirty-six and beyond”) and the Mariners’ hiring of Maury Wills in the middle of the 1980 season. This chapter is laugh-out-loud funny, as Neyer says that Wills “just might have been the very worst manager ever.” It is astonishing how many mistakes Wills made in just three months of major-league managing (he was fired one month into the 1981 season). Some of the highlights include making out a lineup card with two third basemen but no center fielder, repeatedly saying he was going to increase the playing time of players who had been traded away, and, for good measure, developing an addiction to cocaine.

The book is chock-full of good nuggets such as these. One of its main pleasures is being reminded of names that we may have vague recollections of, but around which we do not have a lot of context. Quick: did Tigers outfielder Chet Lemon play in the 1920s, 1950s, or 1980s? Answer: the 1980s. Did you know that White Sox broadcaster Ken “Hawk” Harrelson (he of the “You can put it on the board…YES!!!” call) had a disastrous stint as the Sox’ GM? Every time I read a column by Neyer, I come away with a substantive and interesting fact I didn’t know before. Multiply that feeling by a thousand, and you understand what it’s like to read this book.

Matt Sandler's column, "The Critical Fan", appears alternate Fridays

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Fall in Love with Corey Patterson

by Doug Silversten

As commissioner of my fantasy baseball league, it is my duty and privilege to communicate the final standings and congratulate the winner in a group email at the end of the season. At the end of the 2004 season, I had the pleasure of writing these beautiful words:

"In first place, winning $300, is.....me!"

Yes, I, Doug Silversten, was fantasy champion for 2004.

This moment is a close second in my list of "The Proudest Moments of My Life" behind the day I married my beautiful and lovely wife, Sarah….who is standing over my shoulder as I write this.

Phew…she’s gone. Who am I kidding…winning Fantasy is definitely #1. No comparison. And if you have won before, you know exactly what I mean. And if you think I am pathetic that winning my fantasy league was the best day of my life, you either have never played in a competitive fantasy league or you have, and are just jealous that you have never won yourself.

Later in my victory email, I wrote these words:

"I personally would like to thank Johan Santana (my 5th pick overall) for making this day possible. God bless him..."

And I meant it. I seriously considered sending him a note with some of my winnings. While I do take credit for expertly managing my team, Johan made the victory possible.

This year has been a struggle, but I somehow find myself in contention. And if I manage to pull off a miracle, I already know who my new savior is…

God Bless You Corey Patterson.

In late April, my team was really down in the dumps….just like our hero Corey Patterson. I was near the bottom of the pack, in dead last in several categories. I had some reason for optimism in some categories, but with Willy Taveras not running and Loco Coco Crisp hurt, I was in bad shape. But then, a gift from the Gods. Corey Patterson was….dropped! Yes, that’s right, the player who has personally saved my fantasy season from oblivion is a player I didn’t even draft! I can’t tell you how satisfying that is. It’s like winning the lottery from a ticket you found in the street.

I took a chance on Corey, and Corey has not disappointed. He must have been infuriated by fellow Baseball For Thought columnist Matt Sandler tossing him aside, because he suddenly became a fantasy stud. He began running like Forrest Gump, and thanks to the speed demon, I find myself near the top of the standings.

I do not know what the future will hold. My team is certainly capable of a complete collapse. However, thanks to Corey, I have the final 3 ½ months of the fantasy season to look forward to. And if the stars are aligned and I have a little luck, maybe another happy ending is in store. And Corey, if you are reading this, I just want to let you know that if that miracle occurs, expect a check in the mail...

"Wild Card Wednesdays" appears every Wednesday

Monday, June 12, 2006

When Wins And Losses are Meaningless Stats

by Doug Silversten

“Lies. Damned Lies. And Statistics.” I am sure you’ve heard that expression countless times. And for those who are ignorant of the power of statistics, it is often their mantra. While statistics can often mislead if interpreted incorrectly, they also have the power to reveal objective truths that the “gut feels” and “scouting reports” never can. Overall, I’m definitely in the “Moneyball” camp. However, having said that, there are a certain statistics that really are meaningless. And this column is about one of the most meaningless ones.

Wins and Losses.

What? Wins and Losses? Isn’t that the most important statistic? Well, yes, from a team standpoint. It is the ultimate stat. A team’s record is all that matters. All that other stuff on how they got there can be interesting and revealing, but at the end of the day, wins and losses are all that matters. As Bill Parcells put it, “You are what your record says you are.”

And nothing could be further from the truth for starting pitchers.

When a pitcher takes the mound to start a game, his mission is to give up as few of runs as possible. He doesn’t know if the game will be a 1-0 nail-biter, a 10-0 laugher, or somewhere in between. Yes, there is something to be said that a possible indication is the quality of the other starter. However, I feel that more affects the offense and how a game is managed than the pitcher’s approach. His job is simple: don’t let the other team score. Once the game progresses, sure, things may change. But, in general, it is tough to argue with the fact that a pitcher cannot control how many runs his team scores, only what the opponent does. Nor can he control what his bullpen does after he departs. So, having said that, let’s play a little game:

Pitcher A: 7-5.
Pitcher B: 6-2.

Who is having the better year? Tough to tell? I agree.

Pitcher A: 80.0 IP, 1.41 WHIP, 5.63 ERA, 63 Ks
Pitcher B: 85.2 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 2.94 ERA, 97 Ks

Who is having the better year? If you didn’t answer pitcher B, you are on the wrong site. Click here for something more your speed. The point is, all those other stats supplied information that provided evidence (strange word, I know, for many anti-Moneyballers) of performance. What additional information does the Wins and Losses provide? Does the fact that A went 7-5 and B 6-2 add any additional support for evaluating performance? Sure, it gives you a hint about run support. But performance? None, unless you really believe in the whole “pitch to the score.” And if the stat provides no support of anything of any kind, doesn’t that mean, by definition, it is meaningless?

Of course, if you watched both pitchers the entire year, you don’t need stats to tell you that Pedro Martinez (Pitcher B) is having another amazing year and Randy Johnson (Pitcher A), well, sort of sucks. But no one can follow every player on every team, and while I am all for scouts, occasionally you may want to evaluate talent on statistics. And for the love of common sense, ignore the letters “W” and “L” when judging a starter’s performance.

One more piece of that strange “evidence” word again:

Pedro in the month of May: 6 starts, 6 innings or more in each start. 42 IP. 55/6 K/BB ratio. 25 Hits. 10 ER.

Pedro’s record in May: 0-1.

Meaningless.

Doug Silversten's column, "The Big Picture", appears alternate Mondays
"I've had a pretty good success facing Stan (Musial) by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third base."
- Carl Erskine

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