Preseason Predictions: How We Doing So Far?

This week on Wild-Card Wednesdays, columnist Doug Silversten takes a look at how the Baseball For Thought columnists are doing with their preseason predictions as the season reaches its halfway point

As hard as it is to believe, the end of this week already marks the halfway point of the 2006 baseball season. While there have certainly been some surprises (the Tigers and Reds perhaps the most prominent examples), for the most part, the season has gone as expected. In fact, that is usually the case. Every year there are a few surprise teams that hang around a lot longer than expected. However, at the end of the year, thanks in large part to baseball’s remarkably unfair economic system, pretty much the same bunch of teams make the playoffs each year. Sure, there may be 1 or 2 “new” teams reaching the postseason, but, for the most part, the core remains intact each year.

Given that, it is no surprise that our columnist predictions so far are greatly on target. So, let’s look back at our preseason predictions to see how we are doing so far:

Let’s start with our AL predictions. Here were our predictions:

AL:
East: Red Sox 4, Yankees 4
Central: White Sox 5, Indians 3
West: A's 6, Angels 2
Wild Card: Angels 3, Blue Jays 2, Indians, White Sox, Yankees
Champion: A's 2, Indians 2, Yankees 2, Red Sox, White Sox

Cy Young: Johan Santana 4, Roy Halladay 3, Randy Johnson
MVP: Alex Rodriguez 4, David Ortiz 2, Vladimir Guerrero, Travis Hafner

For the most part, we are right on target. Clearly, the Tigers are the one team we all overlooked, but other than that, only maybe the Rangers are clearly missing.

Randy Johnson is certainly not winning the Cy Young, but everyone else on the awards list certainly has a shot. While we are only halfway home, our columnists certainly seem to have nailed the American League.

Let’s check out our NL predictions:

NL:
East: Braves 4, Mets 4
Central: Cardinals 8
West: Dodgers 6, Giants, Padres
Wild Card: Braves 3, Mets 2, Phillies 2, Brewers
Champion: Cardinals 5, Braves, Dodgers, Mets

Cy Young: Jake Peavy 4, Pedro Martinez 2, Roy Oswalt, Ben Sheets
MVP: Albert Pujols 6, Carlos Delgado, Andruw Jones

The only team we, along with most prognosticators, were way off with is the Atlanta Braves. However, overall we are again right on target. We missed the boat with the Reds, but who didn’t? Our Cy Young picks are a bit off, but none embarrassingly so. Overall, looks good.

Our World Series picks? See below:

World Series Champion: A's 2, Cardinals 2, Yankees 2, Mets, Red Sox

Well, considering all 5 of those teams are either in first place or less than 4 games from it, right on target again. Not shockingly. Name those 5 teams every year, and thanks to their payrolls, they will be right there at the end. Of course, the only exception is the A’s, and that is because of the best GM perhaps in the history of the game, as we discussed in Monday’s column.

Finally, how about Barry Bonds. Our average prediction:

Number of HR's Barry Bonds will hit: 30.6 (SD 3.6)

Barry Bonds is on pace for…. 23 HRs.

Hey, not bad. If Bonds has a 2 HR game tonight, he’ll be on pace for 27, right within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Wow, we’re good.

We’ll check back in October to hand out our prediction awards. Enjoy the second half!


"Wild Card Wednesdays" appears every Wednesday

Straight A's for Billy Beane

by Doug Silversten

Who is the best all-around player in the game? That’s certainly a good way to get an argument going with some baseball fans. I would say Albert Pujols. Another might say Alex Rodriguez. A third would answer Vladimir Guerrero. All three of us would have legitimate claims to having the "right" answer.

Let’s try another question. Who is today’s best pitcher? I say Johan Santana. You say Pedro Martinez. No easy answer, as despite Pedro being "on the decline," his overall numbers this season are strikingly similar to Johan.

Who’s the best manager? You say Joe Torre. He certainly has the record and a great ability to deal with the New York media. Solid choice. I still say Bobby Cox, despite the Braves’ struggles this season.

Now, how about the game’s best general manager?

Unlike with the other questions, there can be no discussion. No debate. One GM is simply on a different playing field then the rest. And if you don’t already know the answer, then you haven’t been paying attention (or haven’t read the title of this column).

Billy Beane is the game’s best general manager. That’s it. Stop talking. No argument possible.

About midway through another season, and yet another Billy Beane A’s team finds itself in the playoff hunt...with a payroll within the bottom 10 of MLB...mostly comprised of unknowns.

Unknowns you say? How about future hall of famer Frank Thomas? How about future Cy Young award winner Rich Harden? How about 2004 Rookie of the Year Bobby Crosby?

Um, all of the above have missed considerable time on the Disabled List this year. And this doesn’t even count Huston Street, the 2005 Rookie of the Year, who missed about two weeks, although he never landed on the D.L. The only true “star” who has played all season would be third baseman Eric Chavez.

Plenty of teams have injuries though, right? Look at this year’s Yankees.

Hogwash.

Sure, the Yankees have had injuries to some superstars, but when you have a team full of them, you can afford to lose a few. Here is a list of Yankees who have not spent any time on the D.L. this year: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Randy Johnson, Johnny Damon. Cry me a river. Combine that core with the Royals bench, and you should have a contender.

The A’s, on the other hand, shouldn’t be able to afford the loss of key players. Depth and low budgets don’t go hand in hand. Yet, they did. Like they always do.

The A’s may miss the playoffs again for the 3rd straight year. If they make the playoffs or not is almost irrelevant and critics who point to that miss the point. Beane puts a contender on the field EVERY YEAR, despite a low payroll. From 2001 to 2004, the Mets had one of the highest payrolls and yet floundered each year. Yes, the Yankees, Red Sox and Braves (until this year) put out consistent contenders. However, with the resources they have, it is tough to credit the GM. It’s like Bill Gates buying every lottery ticket and then complimenting him when he wins.

Other teams with low payrolls occasionally make a run, although not as often as you think. But when they do, it is usually a flash in the pan. No low-budget team is as consistent as the A’s. The closest is the Twins and a) they always had a higher payroll b) were never as good as the A’s and c) didn’t do it for as long as Beane’s teams have.

Look, bottom line, Beane is, bar-none, the best GM in the game today. There is no comparison. No one comes close. What he has done with the payrolls he has had to work with in this era of competitive imbalance is absolutely, positively, truly remarkable. Reserve that spot in the Hall of Fame for him.

Next question.

Doug Silversten's column, "The Big Picture", appears alternate Mondays