Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Baseball's Unbreakable Records

In this edition of Wild-Card Wednesdays, we examine the most unbreakable baseball records:

With Barry Bonds closing in on Hank Aaron (yes, I still believe he is going to get there), another of baseball’s cherished records is on the verge of being broken. All this record-chasing has got us thinking: which of baseball’s famous records are in no danger of being broken anytime soon? Without further ado, here are, in one columnist’s opinion, the top 5 baseball records that will never be broken:

5) Cal Ripken's 2,632 consecutive games
Many usually list this one near the top, despite the fact that Ripken relatively recently set the record. They say “the game has changed” and another player will never get the opportunity. Well, I say, what makes you think the game won’t change again? Still, this one will be tough to top. The current active leader, Miguel Tejada, will break 1000 consecutive games some time in early July. When you consider he would still need to play over 10 more seasons to catch Ripken, the difficulty of Ripken’s feat really stands out.

4) Ty Cobb’s .366 career batting average
Wow. .366. It is not too often that the batting champ even bats that high. Ichiro Suzuki, who basically entered the majors in his prime and thus avoided the typical early career slumps, “only” had a .332 average entering the season. Many pundits often discuss if anyone will ever bat .400 again. I think it will happen eventually. But for someone to end their career with a .366 average again? Not anytime soon.

3) Nolan Ryan's 7 no-hitters
Nolan Ryan was a freak of nature. For another pitcher to break Ryan’s record and get to 8 no-hitters, he would need to be a freak as well. You would need there be an overpowering hurler with the ability to stay healthy and pitch effectively for a really, really long time. Roger Clemens anyone? Well, guess how many he has? Got your guess yet? The answer is…zero. None. Zippo. Actually, Clemens has never thrown a no-hitter at any level: majors, minors, college, high school, amateur or little league. Ryan’s got this record for quite awhile.

2) Cy Young's 511 wins
I know I responded early to the “game has changed” theory by arguing that it is possible for the game to change again. I guess, but I can’t see it changing enough for someone to approach this record. Say an average pitcher nowadays gets 33 starts a year. Say he is the second coming of Sidd Finch and wins all 33. Every year. For 15 years. That is basically what it would take. Think that is happening anytime soon? If we take away the Sidd Finch scenario, a pitcher would need to average 25 wins for 21 years. That’s nearly impossible. Actually, the Cy Young record that is even tougher is his 749 complete games. Think about that for a second. The complete game leaders in 2005 had 7. If they keep that pace up, they’ll break that record in a mere…107 years. That record really would be #1 on this list, but I wanted to stick to the more famous records.

1) Johnny Vander Meer’s Back-to-Back No-Hitters
You basically would need to be Sidd Finch to break this record...or at least an incredibly lucky pitcher. Why luck? Because a big component of no-hitters is exactly that: luck. A little bloop here, a squibber there, bye-bye no-no. Let me break out my statistics ability to demonstrate the impossibility of breaking this record and getting 3 straight. Let’s take the all-time leader, Nolan Ryan. He got to 7 in 773 career starts, or by averaging a no-no about one every 110 starts. Assuming the chance of him pitching a no-no remained constant and independent during his career, the odds of him pitching 3 in a row are approximately .0000007426. There is a better chance of the sun rising in the West tomorrow.

Wild Card Wednesdays appear every Wednesday

Monday, May 01, 2006

Pedro is a God

by Doug Silversten

I admit it. I was one of them.

When the Mets signed Pedro Martinez to a 4-year, $53 million contract following the 2004 season, I, like countless other Met fans, questioned the move. While this clearly wasn't going to be the second-coming of Bobby Bonilla, this wasn't as sure of a thing that it now seems in retrospect. People with selective memories may forgot, but there were plenty of people calling WFAN and worrying that the Mets had once again paid too much and committed to too many years for an aging, past his prime superstar.

And I was one of them.

And I was wrong.

Pedro is a god. Yes, that's right: a god. Blasphemy? Heck no. Have you seen Pedro pitch? Even the God that parted the Red Sea can't dominate a game, and play with a crowd of 50,000-plus at the same time, like Pedro Martinez can.

With apologies to Mike Piazza, the Mets haven't had a superstar like this since Dwight Gooden. A player you can’t take your eyes off. Social calendars throughout the tri-state area are revolving around this guy. Mr. and Mrs. Smith invited you and your wife to dinner on Friday? Oh, sorry. We can’t make it. It's a Pedro night.

All the possible negatives people were discussing at the time of his signing have turned out to be way off the mark. Fans were worried that he was a ticking time bomb, that his right arm was going to fall off one day soon. Well, I realize we are only a little more than a year into the 4-year contract, but I haven't read too many arm concerns lately. In fact, for some reason people seem to think Pedro has this long injury history, when in reality he is one of the most durable pitchers out there. Only once in last 10 years has Pedro failed to reach 180 innings. Six times during that stretch he was in the top 10 for the league in innings pitched. Oh, and during that time he also won 3 Cy Young Awards, led the league in ERA 5 times, strikeouts 3 times, WHIP 6 times, and even complete games once. Injury history? Baloney.

The next fear was that Pedro was going to be a "cancer in the clubhouse." At least I can proudly say that I never bought into this one. It's funny that Met fans even brought this up, considering we were only a few years after Bobby Bonilla and Rickey Henderson playing cards in the clubhouse during the Mets ouster in the 1999 playoffs. Whatever the opposite of "cancer" is, that's Pedro. He has livened up this clubhouse, this team, this franchise, and this city like no Mets player has ever has.

I love how he plays with the crowd. I love that you can't knock that smile off his face. I love how he handles the media. Yes, it's a man-crush.

Pedro is a god.


Doug Silversten's column appears alternate Mondays
"I've had a pretty good success facing Stan (Musial) by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third base."
- Carl Erskine

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